Global trade remains strong despite policy changes and uncertainty

Manufacturing remained the main driver of global trade growth in the second quarter, led by the electronics sector. Strong demand for hybrid and electric vehicles continued to boost the automotive industry, reinforcing manufacturing’s central role in the current phase of trade expansion.
UN Trade and Development’s nowcast shows continued growth in the third quarter, with goods expected to expand by about 2.5% quarter over quarter and services accelerating sharply to around 4%. On a rolling annual basis, growth remains robust – about 5% for goods and 6% for services.
Prices for traded goods rose slightly in the second quarter, with preliminary estimates pointing to a marked increase in the third.
This suggests that while the rise in global trade value during the first half of the year was driven mainly by higher volumes, growth in the third quarter will be partly fuelled by rising prices.
Developing economies led global trade growth
Growth in the second quarter was driven primarily by developing economies, supported by rising South–South trade. Weak United States trade performance weighed on the global average.
Trade imbalances narrowed
Global imbalances in goods trade, which had widened in recent quarters, narrowed in the second quarter of 2025, largely reflecting shifts in United States trade policy.
Trade deficits expanded in Japan, India and the United Kingdom. Among surplus economies, China’s trade surplus declined only slightly, despite a significant reduction in its surplus with the United States. The European Union’s trade surplus also fell during the quarter.
Record highs expected for 2025